Mass Multi-Entry: The DFS Strategy That Could Double Your Winnings

It's time for a hard truth. You can't handle the truth! If you're playing DFS and just playing a few lineups a night, you are never going to be able to build your bankroll sustainably. Our backtesting shows that a profitable player playing just a handful of lineups per slate is twice as likely to go broke over the season compared to someone multi entering.

If you're already a profitable player playing just a few lineups per slate, you need to hear this. And if you're just playing casually and you're ready to start taking DFS more seriously, this video is the roadmap to kicking off that journey. Your biggest opponent in DFS contests is not who you think it is.

Sure, ultimately you're competing your DFS lineups against the other players in the lobby, but the biggest foe you face in DFS is Variants. Variance describes the range of possible outcomes, and if you've looked at DFS projections, you're probably already familiar with the concept. When Aaron Judge is projected for 12 DraftKings points, does that mean he scores 12 DraftKings points every time?

Of course not. There is variance to that average projection, and Aaron Judge's possible outcomes fall somewhere under a wide range on either side of that projection. The same is true with your DFS lineups. If you're a profitable player with a 20 percent ROI, you're probably going to score Does that mean you make 20 cents on every dollar you spend on DFS every night?

Again, of course not. But the variance of both Aaron Judge's performance on the baseball diamond and your performance in DFS is related heavily to the sample size. Sure, Judge might score 25 points tonight, or he might score zero. But over the course of, say, 50 games, you can expect that his average outcome is going to start getting a lot closer to 12 points.

But while Judge can't get 50 at bats in a given game to converge on his actual average expectation, you can certainly play 50 lineups on a given DFS slate instead of the 1, 2, or 3 you might be used to. And in doing so, your expected profit will get closer and closer to your average projected profit. And this is the core of a huge leak that many casual DFS players or single entry enthusiasts ignore.

Average Expected Profit, or a player's ROI, only tells half the story. How frequently you are able to achieve that profit is a huge part of successfully building a bankroll. The reason why is because DFS is a progressive game, meaning you're taking the bankroll you have with you that day into each new slate.

And a larger bankroll means that you can safely get more action down on each slate. Let's assume you have two DFS players that both have a 20 percent ROI, but the first player loses every single entry until they win first place. The second player has more mixed results. They're still live to take down that big first place win, but they're also racking up smaller wins along the way.

That first player is going to find their bankroll dwindling very quickly, and after a month or even a couple weeks, is going to have to scale back their action. Suddenly, the 100 a night they're playing is too much to play, so they drop down to 50 a night. But when you drop down to 50 a night, you're earning less over the long term.

This player is still a 20 percent ROI player, But they've played in a high variance way that over a short period of time has reduced the amount of money they can make in that 20 percent ROI investment. Now consider again Player 2. This player is still hunting for the big win just like Player 1, but Player 2 has played more lineups per slate with the same investment as Player 1, meaning their outcomes each slate are a little closer to their average expectation.

And maybe they even racked up a couple small wins in the meantime. After a month, Player 2 still has a similar bankroll, so they're still playing 100 a night and over the long term earning 20 percent on that investment. This is of course only true if you can continue to maintain the same ROI playing more lineups than you can when you're playing just a handful of lineups.

And this is the most common objection I've heard from people about making that jump. I know how to build a really good lineup by hand that has the potential to win, and optimizers can't do that for me. And I completely get it. Optimizers are terrible at building tournament winning DFS lineups. Why?

Because all they care about is the average projections we were talking about before, which you and I both know isn't representative of what can actually happen on a given slate. The things you probably have an intuitive feel for as you build out your lineups by hand are things that optimizers know nothing about.

Stacking, correlation, ownership, and the upside of specific players. But this is a problem of what tools you're using, not of the process itself. You need a tool that understands what makes a good DFS lineup and puts the power in your hands to have that same level of control of 20 or even 150 lineups as you have when you're just hand building one or two.

SaberSim builds lineups using play by play game simulations of the slate. Each lineup built on SaberSim is not just the optimal lineup based on the average projection, but it's the best possible GPP lineup for a given way that the slate could play out. And we build you a huge pool of 500 to 5, 000 of these potential lineups in just seconds.

Scoring and ranking them based on their upside, but also giving you the flexibility to quickly identify your favorites. Let me show you quickly how easy it is to get a set of 20 great MLB lineups with the same level of control as you do when you're building by hand. On SaberSim's home screen, you'll see a bunch of data from our simulations.

But the most important thing here is our build settings. The build settings will let us build a pool of tournament ready lineups to select our 20 from. I'm just going to go ahead and set this to a 20 max, 10 to 50k entrance contest, and start building out that pool. Once our lineups are built, we'll sort our favorite 20 by the top sorted by SaberScore, a custom algorithm that takes into account projection, Ownership and upside, but they're ultimately your lineups and you can do as much tweaking as you want here to make sure you're happy with what you're playing.

We can take a look over at our stack types to see the types of stacks that you're probably used to in MLB created automatically in our lineups. But if we want to uncheck any of these, we can do so. And Sabresim will find the new best 20 lineups with those stacks excluded. If we have a stand we want to take on a particular pitcher or a stack, we can adjust our exposure, which is the percentage of lineups in our set of 20 that contain that player accordingly.

And if at any point Sabresim can't find lineups that match all of our decisions and stands we've made, We can just click rebuild lineups, and we'll get a new set of 500 or 5000, taking into account all of our adjustments that we've made this far. This process takes about as much time as it does to build out a single good lineup by hand, but instead we're getting to reduce our variance by playing more lineups on this particular slate.

If you're making the jump from just a couple of lineups to 20 or more lineups on a given slate, there are a couple of concepts you should become familiar with. And I'll show you a few useful features on SaberSend that will help. First, as I mentioned before, is the concept of exposure. If you're just playing one lineup, you're either playing a guy or you're not.

But with 20 lineups, that distinction is different. You'll instead be thinking about your exposure to a particular player or stack, which is the percentage of lineups in your lineup set that contain a particular player. I like to contextualize my exposure by looking at two data points. The first is the ownership projection, the percentage of lineups we expect your opponents to have in your contests.

If a given player is going to be owned in 30 percent of the lineups in the contest, but you're playing 60%, you're taking a positive stand on that player. The average lineup in your set will benefit more than the average lineup in the contest when that player goes off. You don't have 100 percent exposure to that player.

but it is a net benefit to you when they score and do well in the game. Another useful data point here is the pool exposure, which is the percentage of lineups in your 500 or 5000 lineup pool that have a particular player in them. This can be particularly useful when you think about your lineup pool as a big sample of viable lineups for the slate.

A player with a high pool exposure is showing up in sabersim optimals frequently, And a player with low exposure isn't. Those two data points together can help you make decisions about how to adjust your top 20 or 150 lineups. If there's a particular pitcher that you like on the slate, but you didn't get a much exposure to when you first built, we can check our ownership and pool exposure to determine how much of an adjustment to make.

Say the field is expected to have 20 percent exposure and this pitcher shows up in 30 percent of our pool, We can make an adjustment to the minimum exposure to get 40 percent in our lineups, knowing that we're getting over the field on that player, and we're taking a stand on that player that shows up often in SaberSim Optimals.

The second idea is diversification, centered mostly around the MinUniques feature. When you're just building out a couple of lineups, you're probably not overly concerned about diversifying. If you're playing different players in those lineups, it's probably more because there's a handful of players you want to make sure that you play, rather than an intentional effort to play different players in each lineup.

But as we mentioned before, the goal here is to reduce our variance by giving ourselves more shots at big prizes. If we just play 20 lineups that are all extremely similar, we haven't really done that. While taking down 10 places in the top 20 of the contest is great when it happens, we haven't really reduced our variance by playing with that strategy at all.

When starting to play more lineups per slate, we want to start considering intentionally making our lineups different from each other, and the minuniques tool is a great way to do that. You might be familiar with minuniques from other optimizers, but on SaberSim it works a bit differently. Other tools require you to set this up front, and it becomes an optimizing constraint.

Forcing the optimizer to build lineups that are different from each other. On SaberSim, it's a sorting constraint. Making SaberSim select different lineups for your top 20 that are different from each other. This is a subtle difference, but it is an important one. On other optimizers, diversifying this way makes your lineups worse.

On SaberSim, that isn't the case. Regardless, as you graduate to playing more and more lineups, you should consider diversifying your pool by using minuniques. Different players are going to have different levels of risk tolerance and the need for diversification, so I'd play around with the minuniques dropdown to see what works best for you.

But I'll give you a rule of thumb to start with. First, figure out what the maximum number of minuniques is that still gives you the number of lineups that you need. Once you've figured that number out, Experiment with a min unique setting that is one or two lower than that as a starting point. But what about getting these lineups into DraftKings or FanDuel?

These sites certainly don't make it easy. Hand building a few lineups in their apps is simple, but managing a bunch of clunky CSVs that are meant to be read by computers is a recipe for disaster. And I've had my fair share of mistakes, that completely ruin a slate. It only takes a couple clicks to get lineups out of SaberSim and into your contests on DraftKings or FanDuel.

Once you've reserved entries in the contest you want to play, and if you're not sure how to do that, there's a tutorial in the description of this video. You can just click save to my contest. Enter your lineups into your contests, download the CSV, and upload to DraftKings. You certainly don't have to use SaberSim, but don't let a problem of what tools you're using to play more lineups affect your decision making about how many lineups to play.

Playing more lineups is ultimately going to get you more shots on goal, reduce your variance, and let you keep more action invested in DFS from day to day. If you're ready to take the next step and mass multi enter your next GPP slate, you're going to run into another question quickly. What contests do you actually enter?

Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer an enormous amount of contests in their lobby. And it's almost impossible to wade through it all and figure out the best place to get your action down. But don't worry, we've figured out that part too. Using contest simulations to simulate what the swings look like, playing different combinations of contests, we identified the mathematically optimal contest selection strategy to pick the contest to play.

Check it out in my MLB DFS Profit Plan video by clicking here. And if you're looking for more DFS strategy guides that will help you become a better player, make sure to subscribe. I'll see you in the next video.

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